Given this track record, monitoring the trends of newly assigned ratings could prove useful in anticipating future default activity, based on the observation that years with high numbers of new 'B-' and lower ratings will likely be followed by increased default risk. On Aug. 11, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' following nonrepayment of principal and interest totaling US$52.4 million on its convertible bond due Aug. 11, 2021. This growth of the publicly rated speculative-grade market in Europe has resulted largely from newly assigned speculative-grade ratings (in addition to downgrades). Other methods may calculate default rates using only the most recent year's default and rating data, which may yield comparatively low default rates during periods of high rating activity because they ignore prior years' default activity. All rights reserved. (2), Netherlands Multiplying 93.03% by 96.89% results in a 90.14% survival rate to the end of the third year, which results in a three-year average cumulative default rate of 9.86%. On July 9, 2021, S&P Global lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Spain-based Joye Media SLU to 'D' from 'CCC-'. On May 14, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Florida-based wound care services provider CDRH Parent Inc. to 'D' from 'CC' following a distressed exchange. (6), Lebanon (10), Hungary Structured Finance - Global: March 2023 structured rating transitions ( Jan 1993 - Mar 2023) - Excel supplement. For example, 359 defaults were recorded in the five-year pool that began in January 2017, and 352 were rated speculative-grade on Jan. 1, 2017. On Jan. 6, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Spain-based print and audiovisual media operator Promotora de Informaciones S.A. to 'SD' from 'CC', following the company's announcement that it would amend its loans and issue about 110 million of supersenior debt. Defaults arise disproportionately from low rating categories, and this holds true over longer time horizons (see table 14). (33), Corporates (2), Cuba For example, private companies do not usually report cash flow items. Therefore, every update revises results to the same starting date of Dec. 31, 1980, to avoid continuity problems. The issuer completed restructuring of its US$415 million senior unsecured notes due August 2021. Many of these DEs will end up as re-defaults underscoring how more out-of-court restructurings have failed or been undermined by the economic environment. The interest was due on its 10.75% senior secured notes due 2023. Table 10 displays the medians, averages, and standard deviations for the times to default from the original rating. SUMMARY REPORTS Reports FILTER BY Type Sector Region Date Range SYNOPSIS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next For example, 10 companies rated 'A' at any point in their lifetimes (excluding initial ratings) defaulted within one year of receiving this rating. Similarly, if it defaulted in the middle of 1991, it would be included in the column representing transitions to 'D' in the 1991 one-year transition matrix. (7), Azerbaijan (2), Australia While the amendments provided additional liquidity and delayed short-term covenant risks, the downgrade reflected the likelihood of weaking liquidity over the course of the next 12 months amid the possibility of a new distressed restructuring or debt exchange. (1), Arizona However, the speculative-grade share of both the financial and nonfinancial sectors has been growing in recent years. The incremental liquidity, combined with improved debt-trading levels, made it less likely that AMC would pursue a subpar debt exchange or other forms of debt restructuring in the near future. to 'D' from 'CC'. DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. For additional details on the 2021 defaulters, see Appendix III. (6), Ivory Coast On Oct. 4, 2021, we withdrew our long-term issuer credit ratings on IPC Corp. because its new debt did not require a rating. The company failed to meet its obligations despite holding RMB14 billion in cash on hand as of June 30, 2021. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. (1), New Hampshire Over the long term (1981-2021), heightened ratings stability is broadly consistent with higher ratings (see table 21). The company had failed to make coupon payments on its outstanding U.S. dollar senior notes. The transactions would include repaying 400 million in debt and extending remaining debt with a modest increase in interest rates. On Aug. 13, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on KCIBT Holdings L.P. to 'CCC' from 'SD'. (2), Latvia (2), Fiji As part of the restructuring, the current owner, Advent International Corp., made a US$50 million equity contribution. Shareholders provided additional liquidity freedom, as the financial maintenance covenants were replaced with a CHF25 million minimum liquidity test. On Nov. 11, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Brazil-based transportation infrastructure group Investimentos e Participacoes em Infraestrutura S.A. - Invepar to 'D' from 'CC'. On a year-over-year basis, the number of rated defaults globally was much lower in every quarter of 2021 relative to 2020, and the quarterly pace of defaults consistently declined as the year wore on (see chart 16). In addition, average default statistics become less reliable at longer time horizons as the sample size becomes smaller and the cyclical nature of default rates has a bigger effect on averages. Numbers in parentheses are standard deviations. The developing outlook indicated that we might raise or lower our ratings over the next 12 months depending on the company's ability to successfully refinance its upcoming maturities in a timely manner. A default is assumed to take place on the earliest of: When an issuer defaults, it is not uncommon for S&P Global Ratings to subsequently withdraw the 'D' rating. (7), United Arab Emirates For example, the one-year default rate column of table 24 is equivalent to column 'D' of the average one-year transition matrix in table 21, as well as the cumulative average in the "Summary statistics" of the one-year column in table 32. For the purposes of this study, we form static pools by grouping issuers (for example, by rating category) at the beginning of each year, quarter, or month that the database covers. In fact, 2021 saw some of the lowest default rates in the post-financial-crisis period. The number of defaulters that began the year with active ratings plummeted to 60 in 2021 from 198 in 2020. These tables can also be constructed for each rating category. DATA REPORT Corporate default rate holds steady in January 14 Feb 2023 | Moody's Investors Service The global speculative-grade corporate default rate was unchanged from the prior month at 2.8%. (2), Sierra Leone Global speculative-grade default rate held steady in February. In 2010-2021, about 77% of the initial ratings that S&P Global Ratings assigned to new issuers were speculative-grade. The company entered into a forbearance agreement with its lenders dated Aug. 5, 2021. In contrast, the issuer with the shortest time to default (18 days) was a confidentially rated Cayman Islands-based homebuilder/real estate company. (76), North Korea Corporate defaults jump with higher interest rates, slowing GDP growth and financial-stability risks. We still viewed the capital structure as unsustainable over the long term, however. For both broad categories over the past three years, all of these defaulters were rated in the lowest rating categories several years ahead of their eventual default. (3), The Credit Cycle Turns Earlier, on March 5, 2021, we had lowered our long-term issuer credit rating on Boart Longyear Ltd. to 'CC' from 'CCC+'. (9), ESG - Social On Feb. 22, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Spain-based global bridalwear company Pronovias (CatLuxe) to 'SD' from 'CCC+' following the company's amendment to its 72 million second-lien term loan to pay in-kind interest till maturity in 2025. (55), Periodic Reports As an example, if 'CCC'/'C' rated entities made up 10% of the total population of issuers at the start of the time frame examined (x-axis) and 50% of the defaulters (y-axis), then the coordinate (10, 50) would be the first point on the curve. (2), Luxembourg Historically, a growing concentration of speculative-grade ratings often precedes a period of increased defaults. Methodology Later, on Nov. 4, 2021, we withdrew our long-term issuer credit rating at the company's request. The downgrade reflected the company's announcement that it would not make the $23.2 million interest payment due Feb. 15, 2021, on its 6.45% senior notes in the 30-day grace period. The one-year Gini in 2021 was well above the one-year weighted average (since 1981) Gini ratio of 82.6% and higher than the median annual Gini ratio over the past 41 years of 85.7% (see table 2 and chart 32). AI Mistral's financial restructuring resulted in lower debt and interest costs, while an equity contribution from the owner strengthened the company's liquidity. Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion S.A. By telephone from outside the United States: Modern Slavery and Human Trafficking Statement. (2), Guam We project the rate will rise to 4.6% by January 2024 under our baseline scenario. We use rating modifiers (plus and minus signs) to calculate upgrade and downgrade percentages, as well as the magnitude of rating changes, throughout this study. (9), Togo U.S. and tax havens: U.S., Bermuda, and the Cayman Islands. (9), Slovakia For example, at the end of 2021, the one-year default rate among all financial entities was 0.14%, compared with 1.2% for all nonfinancial entities. Each issuer is likely to be captured multiple times, in line with its migration from one rating to another, so the total count in table 13 is different from that in table 12. (2), Jamaica Initial ratings, or those as of Dec. 31, 1980. (2), B3 Negative and Lower All of the defaulters in 2021 with active ratings immediately prior to default were rated in the lowest rating categories. In this case, these are the seven-year Gini ratios from the 1981 cohort through the 2015 seven-year cohort. On Aug. 9, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Delaware-based Glass Mountain Pipeline LLC to 'D' from 'CC'. (27), SGL Monitor (7), Belize Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not statements of fact. The date the debtor filed for, or was forced into, bankruptcy. For instance, in table 32, the weighted average first-year default rate for all speculative-grade-rated companies for all 41 pools was 3.6%, meaning that an average of 96.4% survived one year. (2), Bermuda This page provides a central resource for Moody's research on default risks, impairment and loss rates, rating transitions and performance, and liquidity studies. Historically, nonfinancial defaulters tend to have a much smoother and shorter path to default (see chart 14). To the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. We believed Serba's constrained ability to secure fresh external funding, coupled with persistent cash burn from its operations, would result in the company not being current on its debt obligations. (389), West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) (2), Nigeria The default count rose to nine, up from a revised six in January. (8), Sovereign & Supranational The latter are companies with obligations that are not legally guaranteed by a parent but that have operating or financing activities that are so inextricably entwined with those of the parent that it would be impossible to imagine the default of one and not the other. (168), Structured Finance DRA also publishes impairment and loss studies for structured finance sectors. (2), Brazil The stable outlook reflected our view of the company's improved operating performance and adequate liquidity following the recapitalization. Earlier, on June 18, 2021, we lowered our long-term issuer credit rating on Sichuan Languang to 'CCC-' from 'B-'. Multiplying 96.4% by 96.5% results in a 93.03% survival rate to the end of the second year, which leads to a two-year average cumulative default rate of 6.97%. (2), Monaco For further detail, please see the last page. (1), Investment Grade (1), New Jersey For example, among defaulters that we rated 'B' at origination, the default rate climbs to a high of 18.3% in the third year and decelerates thereafter. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. A total of 3,170 defaults have been recorded globally since 1981. (2), Kenya (1), ESG Credit and Sustainable Finance On Aug. 18, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on CLISA to 'CCC' from 'SD', following completion of its debt exchange of 2023 senior secured and unsecured notes for new 2027 senior secured notes. The cost-savings measures improved the issuer's EBITDA margin, but we still believed its capital structure was unsustainable. (2), Mauritania On March 1, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on Pronovias to 'CCC' from 'SD'. On May 19, 2021, we raised the long-term issuer credit rating to 'CCC+' from 'SD' after the company completed the restructuring and issued a new CHF475 million subordinated loan due March 2027 provided by its shareholders. This influx of new speculative-grade issuers has contributed to the growing share of speculative-grade ratings globally, with the U.S. and European regions accounting for roughly 73% of the total since 2010. The excel-based report provides the transition and default rate data for public long-term international credit ratings across major market sectors, including corporate finance, structured finance, public finance, sovereigns, and global infrastructure and project . (53), U.S. Public Finance Over the long term, the global weighted average Gini coefficient (a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon) was 82.6% over the one-year horizon, 75.4% over three years, 71.6% over five years, and 69.1% over seven years (see table 27). On Dec. 6, 2021, we withdrew the long-term issuer credit rating on Glass Mountain Pipeline LLC. *Excludes downgrades to 'D', shown separately in the default column. (2), Ireland This does not necessarily indicate a default event, but during the period of regulatory supervision, the regulators may have the power to favor one class of obligations over others or pay some obligations and not others. This usually leads to shorter time frames from which to calculate default statistics. For example, three-year transition matrices were the result of comparing ratings at the beginning of the years 1981-2019 with the ratings at the end of the years 1983-2021. Therefore, if an issuer has rated debt but not an issuer credit rating, we assign a proxy rating so that the CreditPro corporate dataset accurately represents the complete universe of ratings. Austria, Belgium, British Virgin Islands, Bulgaria, Channel Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Guernsey, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Isle of Man, Italy, Jersey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and U.K. Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Israel, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, and Singapore. We calculated standard deviations for Gini ratios in this study as the standard deviations of a sample, and not those of a population. The global speculative-grade corporate default rate came in at 2.8% for the trailing 12 months ended in February, unchanged from December 2022 and January 2023. In line with expectations, the Gini coefficients decline over time because longer time horizons allow for greater credit degradation among higher-rated entities. (6), Puerto Rico S&P PARTIES DISCLAIM ANY AND ALL EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR USE, FREEDOM FROM BUGS, SOFTWARE ERRORS OR DEFECTS, THAT THE CONTENTS FUNCTIONING WILL BE UNINTERRUPTED, OR THAT THE CONTENT WILL OPERATE WITH ANY SOFTWARE OR HARDWARE CONFIGURATION. Its Gini coefficient--which is a summary statistic of the Lorenz curve--would thus be zero. The issuer reached a three-part agreement with its debtholders to restructure its debt: a 1.6 billion debt-to-equity swap, a write-off of about 200 million, and the remaining 1.7 billion of unsecured bonds. The largest gaps were in financial institutions and real estate, which each had a four-notch difference. *The Netherlands Antilles was dissolved in 2010. (6), Comoros In other words, the use of a rating category suggests that movements to 'AA' from 'AA-' or to 'BBB+' from 'BBB-', for example, are not considered to be rating transitions because the rating remained within the rating category. On July 20, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit on Mexican lending company Alpha Holding S.A. de C.V. to 'D' from 'CC'. (2), Benin The issuer executed a transaction that included conversion of accrued principal on a second lien to preferred equity and an extension of maturities on a revolver. (6), Hong Kong SAR, China (6), Mozambique JC. Moody's (and other rating agencies) also reports default rates derived by calculating multi-period rating transition matrices . The company had filed voluntary petitions under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. The company announced that 97% of the bondholders of its 2023 senior secured and unsecured notes accepted the exchange offer the company launched on July 15, 2021. (2), Guyana In the summary sections at the bottom of tables 30-32, the first rows show the issuer-weighted averages of the marginal default rates. This resolution would result in a material reduction of leverage, with debt to EBITDA of about 2x in 2021, compared with almost 20x in 2020 and about 10x in 2019. Argentina, Barbados, Belize, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guatemala, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Trinidad and Tobago, and Uruguay, Asia-Pacific. (2), Mongolia Moody's EDF credit measures significantly outperforms agency ratings in measuring the probability of default, as well as statistical scoring models of all types. Investment-grade-rated issuers globally tend to exhibit greater ratings stability (as measured by the frequency of rating transitions) than those rated speculative-grade (see table 20). We calculated average transition matrices on the basis of the multiyear matrices just described. On Oct. 4, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on New Jersey-based debt-issuing vehicle IPC Corp. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' due to a restructuring agreement on the company's second-lien debt. On July 13, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on China-based property developer Sichuan Languang Development Co. Ltd. to 'D' from 'CCC-' after the company failed to repay interest and principal totaling about Chinese renminbi (RMB) 968 million on its medium-term note due July 11, 2021. Low rating categories, and this holds true over longer time horizons for. Issuer with the shortest time to default ( see table 14 ),... Allow for greater credit degradation among higher-rated entities the 2015 seven-year cohort downgrades to 'D ', shown separately the. And real estate, which each had a four-notch difference Global market Intelligence 's.. 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U.S. dollar senior notes the 1981 cohort through the 2015 seven-year cohort Mountain...
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